Amount of oil projected from Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and relationship to U.S. oil supply needs
According to a study updated by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2000, using the newest data available, there is a 95% chance of finding only 1.9 billion barrels (BBO) of economically recoverable oil under the coastal plain of the Arctic Refuge and a 50% chance of finding 5.3 billion barrels of oil.
Americans use 19 million barrels of oil each day, or 7 billion barrels of oil per year.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (within the Department of Energy) oil imports in 2025 would only decrease from 70 to 66 percent if the Refuge were drilled.
If oil were discovered in commercial quantities in the Arctic Refuge, it would only make up 0.3 percent of world oil production at that time, or only 0.7 percent at peak production in 2025, at which point production from the Refuge would diminish.
Assuming that world oil markets continue as they do today OPEC could countermand any potential price impact of Arctic Refuge production by reducing its exports by an equivalent amount.
U.S. EIA, Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge at 8, SR/OIAF/2004-04 (March 2004).
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[i] U.S. EIA, Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, at 2, 8, SR/OIAF/2004-04 (March 2004).
[ii] U.S. EIA, Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge at 9-10, SR/OIAF/2004-04 (March 2004).
[iii] U.S. EIA, Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge at 8, SR/OIAF/2004-04 (March 2004).
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